In the current Q1 2025 earnings season, SMI heavyweights are presenting themselves in strong form. Nestlé and Roche, for example, exceeded expectations with their results last week and reaffirmed their annual targets. This week, it was time for the third major player on the Swiss stock market: Novartis. The pharmaceutical giant even managed to raise the bar further. Once again, the company surprised with an upward revision of its guidance.
Starting with the quarterly report: Novartis managed to accelerate its already strong growth pace from the previous year. In 2024, revenue rose by 12% and adjusted operating profit by 22%. From January to March 2025, revenue increased by 15% and operating profit by 27%. In figures, the pill maker reported revenue of USD 13.23 billion and a profit of USD 5.58 billion. Analysts had expected sales of "only" USD 13 billion and a profit of USD 4.2 billion. Once again, the growth drivers were the heart medication Entresto, the multiple sclerosis drug Kesimpta, Cosentyx for psoriasis, the breast cancer drug Kisqali, the cholesterol-lowering Leqvio, and Scemblix for leukemia. Kisqali, for instance, posted a 52% quarterly increase to USD 956 million. CEO Vas Narasimhan sees mid-term peak annual sales potential of up to USD 8 billion for Kisqali. Meanwhile, Leqvio is gaining momentum after a slow start since its market launch at the end of 2021, generating USD 257 million from January to March — a 70% increase.
Both the 2024 results and the start of the new year show that Novartis is beginning to reap the rewards of its corporate restructuring. Since last year, the Basel-based company has been operating solely as a pharmaceutical company. To maintain growth in the coming years, Novartis plans not only to fully exploit the potential of its existing portfolio but also to draw on its large development pipeline. More than 200 projects are currently in clinical phases, including new active ingredients, expanded indications, and new formulations of already approved substances. One such substance is Atrasentan for kidney disease, which may soon enter the U.S. market. The U.S. FDA recently granted the drug accelerated approval.
To ensure that the trade conflict initiated by former U.S. President Donald Trump does not impact operations, Novartis has already announced plans to upgrade its overseas production with multi-billion-dollar investments. “Our goal is to produce 100% of our key products in the United States for the United States within the next five years,” Narasimhan stated during the quarterly results presentation. Last year, the company generated about 42% of its revenue in the world’s largest healthcare market.
Since taking office in February 2018, the CEO has restructured Novartis and is gradually earning more investor trust. With a 47% gain since he took over, the stock is about 6 percentage points ahead of the SMI and 15 points ahead of rival Roche. Novartis could further widen this lead with its newly raised full-year forecast. Excluding currency effects, revenue is now expected to grow by a high single-digit percentage, while adjusted operating profit is forecast to rise disproportionately by a low double-digit percentage. Previously, the company targeted mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth and a high-single to low-double-digit increase in operating profit. “We remain focused on advancing our leading pipeline and are confident in delivering on our growth outlook,” Narasimhan affirmed.
The domestic blue chip reacted positively to the latest news, crossing the 100-day moving average. The next target is the 200-day average, currently near CHF 94. Only after surpassing both indicators will the triple-digit price mark come back into play. Bullish traders could achieve disproportionate gains on the way there. How? Quite simply — with leveraged products. Leonteq offers a wide range of Mini-Futures and Knock-out Warrants. Depending on risk appetite, trading-oriented investors can use various multipliers, even reaching double digits. But beware: the higher the leverage, the closer the knock-out point. However, profits can also be made on the short side — if Novartis fails to break through its moving averages and pulls back, suitable short products in Leonteq’s portfolio allow investors to benefit from declines as well.
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