It remains unclear whether, and in what way, Unicredit will use the event to its advantage. Bettina Orlopp, CEO of Commerzbank, expects the major shareholder to attend: “But we don’t actually expect anything beyond that — at least nothing has been brought to our attention,” she said during a conference call on the latest quarterly figures. With the interim report, Commerzbank confirmed its strong operating performance. The company increased net profit in the first three months of the year by 11.7% to EUR 834 million. Analysts had expected a decline in profits. “We achieved the highest quarterly profit since 2011, demonstrating that we can grow even in economically challenging times,” the CEO noted. Operationally, the Frankfurt-based bank posted a record quarterly result of EUR 1.2 billion, benefiting from a 12% increase in revenues to EUR 3.1 billion. The majority of this came from a slightly reduced net interest income. Meanwhile, Commerzbank grew net commission income in Q1 by 6.4% to EUR 1.01 billion.
“The start to the second quarter was strong,” Orlopp stated. Accordingly, she is sticking to the forecast for 2025. Among other targets, Commerzbank aims for a net income of around EUR 2.8 billion before restructuring costs — EUR 100 million above the record profit achieved in 2024. The cost-income ratio is expected to drop by 2 percentage points to 57% this year. By 2028, the CEO aims to bring this down to just 50%. Net profit is projected to rise to EUR 4.2 billion by then, while the bank is targeting a return on equity of 15%. For comparison, the figure stood at 9.2% in 2024. These targets were announced at the Capital Markets Day in mid-February. The strategy presented on that occasion includes continued digitalization and an increased use of international locations — an approach that entails job cuts in Germany. The CEO describes the measures of recent months as a “strategy of independence.”
Orlopp is receiving support from the political sphere. Germany’s new finance minister, Lars Klingbeil, called Unicredit’s approach unfriendly and unacceptable. “That’s especially true when it comes to a systemically important bank like Commerzbank,” the SPD politician stated shortly after taking office. With a stake of 12.11%, the Federal Republic of Germany is the largest single shareholder in the financial institution. Unicredit knows that no takeover can happen without Berlin’s approval. Accordingly, the Italians want to “enter into constructive dialogue with the new federal government.” However, they don’t expect a decision this year. Holders of the new Softcallable Barrier Reverse Convertible can view the struggle over Commerzbank with relative calm. Regardless of the future share price, investors receive a quarterly coupon payment. In CHF, the payout is 12% p.a. For the EUR-denominated version, the coupon is 200 basis points higher. The barrier is set at a low 59% of the initial level. As long as Commerzbank shares do not fall to or below this level in the next 18 months, investors will receive full nominal repayment. If the buffer is not enough, the partial protection expires, and the investment becomes directly tied to the performance of the underlying asset. Due to the softcallable feature, early redemption of this issue is possible.
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