Even if the details have not yet been fully clarified, meteorologists are currently still giving the so-called "Golden October" a chance. Crypto investors also still have hope that a "high-pressure area" will prevail this month. To be more precise: Bitcoin, which started the fall on a weak note, has been gradually building up strength of late and is now on the verge of breaking out to the upside. This would continue the long-term positive October series. With the exception of 2014 and 2018, the world's most valuable digital asset has always closed the month in positive territory.
Bitcoin is currently up 10% in October. Bitcoin has now digested the sharp setbacks at the beginning of August and then again at the beginning of September well, even if the interim high of USD 70,000 at the end of July has not yet been reached. In order to overcome this psychologically important mark, the USD 63,000/65,000 area must first be broken through on a sustained basis. In addition to horizontal resistance, this is also where the 200-day moving average line runs. Bitcoin supporters have already gritted their teeth at this level several times in recent weeks.
At USD 70,000, Bitcoin would have a market capitalization of just under USD 1.4 trillion. According to various experts, this is peanuts. BlackRock, for example, an asset manager with around 370,000 BTC in its own funds, believes that the value of the crypto asset could rise to USD 5.4 trillion in the coming years. This would correspond to a price increase to a whopping USD 270,000. According to BlackRock, there are global trends such as technological innovations and demographic shifts, keyword "Generation Z", which speak in favor of digital assets such as Bitcoin.
For the experts at investment company ARK Invest, it is above all the decentralization and transparency of the Bitcoin network that make Bitcoin so desirable. In the best-case scenario, the team led by star investor Cathie Wood assumes that Bitcoin will rise into the seven-figure range by 2030. Even in the base case scenario, the price target of USD 682,800 is still astronomical from today's perspective.
In the short term, however, other factors are likely to play the main role in terms of future performance. These would be interest rates on the one hand and the US presidential elections on the other. In particular, a victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump could spur Bitcoin on. "In this case, the USD 100,000 mark would be within reach," believes investment strategist Jürgen Molnar from brokerage firm RoboMarkets. Trump announced at an election campaign event that he wants to become a "crypto president" and will even create a national reserve in the asset. The prospect of further interest rate cuts in the eurozone and the US also plays into Bitcoin's hands. This is because they make risky investments such as crypto assets more attractive again. The market is expecting the ECB to cut interest rates by a further 25 basis points this week. In the US, the next monetary policy decisions are scheduled for November 7 and December 18. On both dates, the key rate is expected to be reduced by 0.25 percentage points.
Following the recent easing on the interest rate front and the rise in Republican candidate Trump's chances of winning the US elections on November 5 from 52 cents to 54 cents on the online forecasting portal PredictIt, blockchain equity ETFs have also recorded one of the largest weekly inflows this year. Investors in Switzerland can also benefit 1:1 from further price gains in Bitcoin - and not via shares, but by investing in tracker certificates on Bitcoin. The certificates launched on the market at the beginning of 2021 relate specifically to this digital asset. The products are available in the currency tranches CHF, USD and EUR and all come with a management fee of 1.50% p.a. A relatively high exercise ratio of 1:1000 was chosen at the time of issue so that investors on a tight budget can also invest in the world's largest crypto asset. Theoretically, you would therefore need 1,000 certificates to purchase one Bitcoin. This denomination makes the asset easily tradable for everyone.