A look at the naked figures shows that online shopping is one of the most popular internet activities across the world. Last year e-commerce sales in the retail sector came to an astounding USDtn 4.28, representing a jump of more than a fifth. The positive trend should continue in the next few years as well: the experts at eMarketer predict average annual growth of around a tenth until 2024. The ongoing enthusiasm goes hand in hand with increasing innovation, with digital shops turning more and more into experience platforms. It is now just as possible to take a virtual 3D tour through a hotel as it is to try on clothes, for instance. Furthermore, a personal focus on the customer is essential in the fashion industry especially. Anyone viewing a pair of trousers on Zalando, for example, will also be shown the matching shirt and the appropriate shoes – a digital form of specialist advice, if you like.
The success of the still young start-up from Berlin can be seen from its balance sheet: the growth in sales exceeded the 20% mark every year between 2017 and 2020. This year the pace has been stepped up even further, with Zalando expecting revenue to climb 31% and forecasting an annual increase of between 20% and 25% for the years thereafter as well. The gross volume of goods sold is set to reach EURbn 30 in 2025, which would correspond to a market share of 7% of the total European fashion market. But that's not enough for the company: in the long run it is aiming for a market share of one tenth. To achieve this, the e-commerce specialist is continuing to invest in its logistics network so that it can serve its customers faster. Potential is also offered by the platform strategy, which gives the various fashion brands and retailers easy access to the European fashion market. More than 4,500 brands are already available in Zalando's online shops at the moment. The rapid growth in sales should also have a positive impact on profits, with Zalando striving for a double-digit margin profile in the future. While forecasts suggest that the operating margin will hover between 4% and 5% in 2021, the return is set to rise to 10% to 13% in the long term.
Despite – or perhaps precisely because of – their already long history, the two US giants, Amazon and eBay, remain on track for growth. Analysts expect Amazon to post growth of 21.7% in its sales this year, for instance. The US group has long since ceased to be reliant on its online sales channels alone, though, having become increasingly diversified in recent years. One of its additions is a large entertainment line with its own film studio aimed at pepping up its streaming products. Then there are the cashless "Amazon Go" supermarkets, which could have a significant impact on food shopping in the bricks-and-mortar retail sector. Last but not least, Amazon is the market leader in a promising growth market with its cloud division, AWS. Changes are currently under way at eBay, too, with the aim of making the most of the company's potential over the long term. Last year, for instance, the group hived off its "eBay Classifieds" arm in order to concentrate on its core expertise in the auction and e-commerce sector. There are currently 19 million sellers on "eBay Marketplace", with as many as 154 million active buyers worldwide. The strategy is certainly paying off: analysts expect earnings per share to climb 12.1% for the current year, coming in even a little higher in 2022 with a 13.7% rise.
Like their trading figures, the price curves of Amazon, eBay and Zalando are also pointing up. The three e-commerce specialists have each been able to almost double their value over the last two years, for instance. The trio do not have to keep up such a rapid pace in the next 24 months in order to deliver an attractive return with the Bonus Outperformance certificate, as the financial product is designed to generate an attractive return at the end from moderate price gains. In detail, how the certificate works is that investors benefit from rising prices of the basket with a leveraged participation rate of 200% up to the cap. This will be redeemed at 130% of the starting level, resulting in a maximum redemption amount of 160% of the nominal. Should the price of the basket at the end be trading below the starting level, the investment will not automatically finish with a loss: only if the barrier of 69% of the starting value is breached during the 2-year term will there be a hit. In that case the classic "worst of" principle applies.
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