At the beginning of November, Hellen Obiri made sports history. She won the New York Marathon with a time of 2:19:51 hours, shattering the previous course record. Back in 2003, her compatriot Margaret Okayo had set the best time of 2:22:31 hours on the 42.195-kilometre course through the US metropolis. On Holding didn’t even exist back then. The Zurich-based company has been shaking up the sports world only since 2010. Today, Hellen Obiri is among a group of top athletes who find success with On’s innovative and particularly lightweight running shoes. Yet on the stock market, the company remains in a slump. In the week following the New York Marathon, the On share, listed on Wall Street, dropped to its lowest level since May 2024. The Zurich company cannot escape the weakness of the entire sporting goods sector in a period marked by tariff debates, inflation, and uncertain economic prospects.
Operationally, On Holding is standing out from the competition more than ever: From July to September 2025, the company increased revenue by almost one quarter to CHF 794.4 million. In terms of operating profit (adjusted EBITDA), CEO Martin Hoffmann - who is also responsible for finances - reported a disproportionate jump of 49.8% to CHF 179.9 million for the third quarter. “Customers have not restricted their purchases of our products, even though we implemented some price increases as of July 1,” the company head explained. Above all, in the US, the largest single market, On benefits from the undiminished appetite of affluent consumers for expensive running shoes and sneakers. The strong positioning also helped navigate recent trade policy turmoil. “We can easily absorb the existing tariffs and still achieve better-than-expected margins,” Hoffmann said. Even during the Christmas season, typically marked by discount battles, On is unlikely to offer bargains.
For the third time, the CEO has raised the company’s targets for 2025. Martin Hoffmann now expects annual revenue of CHF 2.98 billion, instead of the previously anticipated CHF 2.91 billion. He forecasts the adjusted EBITDA margin at more than 18.0%. Previously, the top manager had indicated a range of 17.0% to 17.5%. Wall Street reacted enthusiastically: On the day the figures were released, the On share jumped by more than a quarter at its peak. Since then, however, the rebound has stalled, and the stock failed to break above the downward trend established in May. Most analysts believe On Holding is capable of a breakout. Of the 28 ratings documented by Reuters, 24 are “Buy”. With an average price target of nearly USD 62, the expected level lies roughly 50% above the current price.
Investors who believe On Holding could stage a final sprint at the end of the 2025 stock market year may want to take a look at Leonteq’s range of leveraged products. There are more than 20 options - Mini-Futures, Warrants, and Knock-Out Warrants - that allow short-term positioning for rising prices in the sports shoe specialist. These structures also allow for short-side positioning. Aiming for a largely stable price development, new softcallable barrier reverse convertibles have been launched. In the product currency CHF, the issuer promises an annual coupon of 12.2%. The USD-denominated version yields 3 percentage points more per year. The barrier for both versions is set at 64% of the initial level. As long as On Holding does not fall to or below this level within the next 15 months, Leonteq will repay the nominal amount in full. Otherwise, the partial protection expires, and the investment is exposed to the full price risk of the underlying. Due to the softcallable feature, an early termination and repayment of the issuance is possible.
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