The vaccination progress in many countries shows that the vaccines from Biontech & Co. keep their promise. However, the Corona pandemic is far from being defeated, and there are still too few approved vaccines on the market. Fortunately, the next candidates are already in the starting blocks. The vaccines from CureVac, Sanofi and Novavax, for example, are currently at an advanced stage of the approval process.
The latter is a US biotech company whose active ingredient is based on an inactivated vaccine combined with artificial proteins. In contrast to previously approved vaccines, NVX-CoV2373 is the first protein-based serum. Current interim results of phase III give hope: The vaccine shows an efficacy of 89.3% against all courses of Covid-19 and even a 100% efficacy against severe courses. According to the latest reports, however, there are delays in the approval process. Unlike originally in May, Novavax now does not expect approval in the US until the third quarter. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is also expected to receive an application for approval by then.
Even if it is still a few months before the vaccine can be used, Brussels appears to be already negotiating with the company behind the scenes. According to media reports, the EU is to be supplied with the vaccines from the end of the year. There is talk of up to 200 million doses, although the majority will not reach mainland Europe until 2022. Japan is also interested in the Novavax product. Together with the local drug manufacturer Takeda Pharmaceutical, around 250 million doses are to be produced each year in the Far East.
In addition, the US company would also like to give low-income countries access to its vaccine. To this end, a contract has been signed with the vaccination alliance "Gavi". According to the agreement, countries participating in the COXA vaccination program will receive 350 million doses from the third quarter of this year. "This is a great opportunity to work with international organizations committed to accelerating equitable access to safe and effective Covid-19 vaccines, especially in countries where vaccination rates are currently low," Stanley C. Erck, president and CEO of Novavax, explained the move. In order to make NVX-CoV2373 available in sufficient quantities worldwide, Siegfried, a domestic pharmaceutical supplier, is also playing its part. The Zofingen-based company has signed a manufacturing and supply agreement with Novavax that runs until the end of 2021 and can be extended at any time.
As far as the company's income statement is concerned, things are currently looking rather bleak. But even though Novavax is still in the red, the biotech specialist managed to beat expectations in the first quarter of this year. While the consensus was for a loss of USD 3.60 per share, the company actually reported a loss of "only" USD 3.05. The company's expected approval of its vaccine is currently looking rather bleak. However, in the wake of the expected approval of the vaccine, the analyst guild is expecting deep black figures soon. Earnings of USD 32.07 per share are expected in the coming year and USD 26.66 in 2023. If this is indeed the case, the stock would currently be valued at a price-earnings ratio of less than 5.
However, the vaccine has not yet been given the green light by the health authorities, and there is therefore a great deal of uncertainty among investors. This is best reflected in the share price. The recent announcement of the delay in approval caused the share price to fall by double digits. A look at the history shows that this was not the first sharp move. The 12-month volatility shows a value of 115%.
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