At first glance, biotechnology and quantum computing appear to be two completely different disciplines — one focused on living systems, the other on one of the fundamental pillars of modern physics. Yet there are important intersections. Quantum computers are particularly well suited for simulating complex molecules, which in turn can optimize the development of new drugs. As early as 2023, IBM and Moderna — two giants from these distinct fields — took a concrete step toward quantum-based biotech research, aiming to more efficiently evaluate the vast array of possible mRNA sequences. In 2025, this innovative duo is now reaching a new milestone.
Last year, a new record in quantum-based simulations was set by predicting the secondary structure of mRNA strands up to 60 nucleotides long — the essential building blocks of DNA and RNA — using a computing power of 80 qubits. In July of this year, IBM and Moderna announced plans to increase this performance to as much as 156 qubits by the end of 2025. Moderna’s goal is to use Big Blue’s expertise to build a quantum-powered biotechnology pipeline, enabling a broader range of molecules to be tested. Ultimately, this is expected to give the company a mid-term competitive advantage in the search for new drugs.
In the short term, Moderna is engaged in an exciting race with rival BioNTech to develop the world’s first mRNA-based cancer vaccine. In the pivot from COVID to cancer immunization, the U.S. biotech company currently holds the lead. At the American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) in Chicago this June, Moderna presented promising study results for its vaccine candidate mRNA-4157, which is used in combination with an immunotherapeutic agent to treat a malignant form of skin cancer. After an observation period of nearly three years, the treatment — combined with the antibody Keytruda from Merck & Co. — reduced the risk of cancer recurrence by 49%. Following these positive results, Moderna is seeking accelerated approval of the vaccine in the EU and the U.S. for 2025.
But Moderna isn’t just focusing on cancer treatment. The company is also conducting research in the fields of influenza and RSV. Most recently, it reported that its new flu vaccine, mRNA-1010, proved to be 26.6% more effective in a Phase 3 study among adults aged 50 and over compared to an approved annual flu shot from competitor GSK. According to experts, this improved efficacy is a necessary step toward gaining approval for a combination vaccine against both flu and COVID. Moderna plans to submit the approval application later this year. Regarding its new COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax, the company has already received positive feedback from the European Medicines Agency. The mRNA-based vaccine is expected to be available for the 2025/26 flu season. Overall, Moderna plans to launch up to ten new products by 2027.
In an effort to cut costs, the drugmaker headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, plans not to independently carry its experimental vaccines through the late stages of clinical development, but is currently seeking partners. Together, they aim to advance key studies on vaccine candidates for the Epstein-Barr virus, varicella-zoster virus, and genital herpes. Speaking of costs: Moderna has recently tightened its budget significantly, outperforming expectations at the beginning of the year. For the period from January to March, the company reported a loss of USD 2.52 per share, while analysts had expected a loss of USD 3.14. CFO James Mock intends to continue this austerity drive. Operating costs are to be reduced by up to USD 1.7 billion by 2027, to a range of USD 4.7 to 5.0 billion. However, according to analysts' consensus, Moderna is unlikely to return to profitability before 2028 (see chart).
After the decline of the COVID-19 pandemic, Moderna experienced a prolonged dry spell — both operationally and on the stock market. The stock lost three-quarters of its value over the past three years. Following a bottoming-out, the share is now attempting a comeback. Should this rebound stall again, investors can still achieve attractive returns through Barrier Reverse Convertibles (BRCs). Leonteq has launched two new soft-callable BRCs, one denominated in CHF and the other in USD. The former comes with a 15% annual coupon, while the USD version offers a potential maximum return of 20% p.a. However, unlike traditional BRCs, the coupon is not guaranteed. To receive it (even partially), Moderna stock must trade above the coupon trigger level — set at 50% of the initial price — on the quarterly observation dates. This level also serves as the barrier. If the coupon payment is missed on a given date, it is not lost; thanks to the memory mechanism, it can be paid retroactively if the stock trades above the trigger level on a later date. In the event of a barrier breach, the final fixing determines the return. If Moderna is at or below the strike level at maturity, investors will receive the underlying stock in their portfolio. If, however, the stock closes above the strike level at the end of the term, Leonteq repays the full nominal amount. The term can be shortened due to the built-in soft-callable feature: every three months, the issuer has the right to redeem both BRCs early at 100%.
For those looking to capitalize on Moderna’s current comeback attempt — the stock has gained more than 20% in the past month — Leonteq offers a wide selection of leveraged products, including mini futures and knockout warrants. And that's not all: similar leveraged instruments are also available for IBM, Moderna’s quantum computing partner.
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