The term “Dr. Copper” refers to the strong connection between copper and the economic cycle. It stems from the fact that this industrial metal is indispensable for applications across a wide range of economic sectors. The spectrum ranges from construction and mechanical engineering to electronics and telecommunications. Until the end of January, expectations of a strong global economy fueled an immense rally in copper. On the US commodities exchange Comex, the price reached an all-time high of USD 6.508 per pound. Nearly two months after that peak, the same amount is now available at roughly one-fifth less - “Dr. Copper” is signaling that the global economy has caught a cold. Along with the commodity, shares of leading copper producers have also taken a hit. This is particularly true for Freeport-McMoRan: the US mining group reached an all-time high of USD 69.75 on February 25. In the nearly four weeks since then, the company’s market capitalization has fallen by 21%.
Following the recent correction, copper is now trading roughly at the price level at which Freeport-McMoRan billed its revenues in the final quarter of 2025. On average, the industry giant generated USD 5.33 per pound of the metal sold between October and December 2025 - almost 30% more than in the same period the previous year. Bottom line, the company, based in Phoenix, Arizona, earned USD 0.47 per share, more than 50% higher than in the fourth quarter of 2024. Analysts had expected earnings per share of USD 0.29 on average. Freeport benefited not only from the rally in copper prices. The company is also supported by rising gold prices and, above all, by efforts of the US government to become more independent from imports in the supply of critical raw materials. To this end, the Trump administration imposed a 50% tariff on copper imports last year.
Freeport-McMoRan is the largest copper producer in the US and aims to further expand its domestic capacities. Starting from 1.25 billion pounds in 2024, US copper production is expected to increase by around 60% to 2 billion pounds by 2030. While production in the US increased last year, overall group output fell by nearly one-fifth. This decline is largely due to an accident at the Grasberg mine. At the world’s second-largest copper mining site, a fatal mining accident occurred last autumn. Freeport-McMoRan had to halt production at the Indonesian site. Operations there are expected to partially resume in the second quarter. Nevertheless, management, led by CEO Kathleen Quirk, expects sales to decline in the current year, as was already the case in 2025. From 2027 onwards, copper sales are expected to rise significantly again.
In addition to the restart in Grasberg, progress in the US and, above all, the global economic outlook are likely to have a significant impact on Freeport-McMoRan’s future share price performance. For investors who find this too uncertain, a new issuance by Leonteq could be of interest. The Zurich-based fintech is launching soft-callable barrier reverse convertibles on the copper producer. In CHF, the guaranteed coupon amounts to 13% p.a., while the USD-denominated version offers a payout 400 basis points higher per year. The barrier is set at 55% of the initial level. Freeport-McMoRan is also included in Leonteq’s leveraged products range. The issuer offers mini-futures, knock-out warrants, and classic warrants on the volatile underlying asset. These instruments allow investors to take short-term positions on both the long and short side.
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