The world is currently taking big steps towards a green future. The presentation of the "Green Deal" of the European Union almost exactly one year ago provided a kick start. If the EU Commission has its way, Europe should be climate-neutral by 2050. This will cost the continent a lot of money: A total of EUR 1 trillion will be invested until 2030. The new US President Joe Biden is digging even deeper into his pockets. He wants to invest USD 2 trillion in cleantech in the next four years alone.
These developments are literally giving wind turbine manufacturer Nordex a tailwind. In spite of the far-reaching consequences of the pandemic, the Germans were able to keep their order books virtually stable year on year at EUR 7.9 billion after nine months. And to achieve climate targets the global expansion of wind energy is necessary, therefore the order trend should remain positive in the coming years. The management is placing a lot of hope in the promising "Delta4000" turbine generation. According to the company, the share of this series in the order backlog is continuously increasing and is also improving the margin.
As far as Nordex's precise targets are concerned, the group put its cards on the table at the beginning of November. Following the Corona year 2020, the management board now expects a positive performance. The strategic goal is to achieve sales of around EUR 5 billion and an operating margin of 8% in 2022. By way of comparison, sales of around EUR 4.4 billion and an EBITDA margin of 2% are forecast for this year. A look at the first nine months shows that this plan is not utopian despite the ongoing pandemic. Between January and September, Nordex generated sales of EUR 3.2 billion and a return of 2.2%.
The management is confident about the further development of the supply chain and the expansion of production capacities, among other things, in order to benefit from economies of scale. In addition, a program has been launched that brings together important initiatives to further improve the operating business and secure the Group's strategic goals. "Building on our market position as one of the top 2 sellers in the 4 and 5 MW segment, we are therefore systematically continuing to pursue our goal of becoming the top 3 company in the industry," says Nordex CEO José Luis Blanco confidently.
Stock market experts were satisfied with the latest figures and future forecasts. In the past 4 weeks alone, the TecDAX stock has risen by more than 50%. With the latest advance, the chart picture has improved significantly. Not only was the 200-day average line overcome, but the price also marked a new 3-year high. After the stock had broken the previous record of EUR 15.75 from April 2019, it could no longer hold on and shortly thereafter even jumped over the psychologically important hurdle of EUR 20. If Nordex is able to hold its ground in this terrain, the next target is in the range of EUR 25 from a technical point of view, where a former support zone from summer 2016 is located.
However, analysts are not in agreement as to whether the wind on the stock market will continue to blow from behind. The experts at Independent Research complain that despite the market growth Nordex has not achieved any sustained increase in profits in recent years or has not been consistently profitable. They see the price target at EUR 17.00 and therefore recommend a "hold" recommendation. Bankhaus Metzler, on the other hand, classifies the company's roadmap to 2022 as "plausible and goal-oriented" and recommends buying the stock at a fair value of EUR 22.
Whether Nordex stock rises to EUR 22 or even falls back to EUR 17 is irrelevant for the new Callable Barrier Reverse Convertible. The products are equipped with risk buffers of 45%, which conversely means barriers in the EUR 11 range. The BRCs are available in two currency tranches: EUR and CHF. In terms of coupons, the EUR variant is ahead with 9.60% p.a. However, the CHF product also offers only a slightly lower yield opportunity at 9.00% p.a.
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